Amid recent conflict in the Middle East and South Caucasus, it is important to analyze the relations between the global forces that play a pivotal role in regional instability. In the last several months, long-standing conflicts between Azerbaijan and Artsakh (also known as Nagorno-Karabakh) and Israel and Palestine have reached a dangerous crescendo.
In the beginning of last year, Azerbaijan blockaded the Lachin Corridor, the only overland route connecting Artsakh to Armenia, holding 120,000 civilians hostage. In September, Artsakh forfeited its territory to the heavily armed and backed Azerbaijan, forcing the mass exodus of the indigenous people of Artsakh from their homeland. The ethnic cleansing of Armenians from their historic lands was heavily, and indisputably, supported by Israel. The Times of Israel estimates that, between 2016 and 2020, Israel supplied Azerbaijan with nearly 70% of its weaponry — weaponry used in its war against Artsakh.
In more recent news, in response to civilian attacks and kidnappings by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Israeli government has launched a full scale attack on Gaza, the demographically Palestinian region of the country. Many refer to the Gaza strip as an “open air prison,” as the region is heavily controlled by the Israeli government which has cut off electricity to the region, along with fuel, food and water and has continuously bombarded the region for weeks.
Since 1991, when Israel recognized the independence of Azerbaijan from the Soviet Union, Israel and Azerbaijan began kindling their diplomatic, economic and military relationship. Both countries have supported each other for decades. In this mutualistic relationship, Azerbaijan provides Israel with about 40% of its oil exports while Israel provides Azerbaijan with weaponry. Additionally, Azerbaijan is the only Muslim-majority country that outwardly supports Israel, also acting as an ally in the Caucasus region against Iran.
Apart from Israel, Azerbaijan is heavily supported by Turkey, a geopolitically powerful country. Turkey, which has a long and tumultuous history with Armenia, was nothing but supportive in Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Artsakh. As both Turkey and Israel are two of Azerbaijan’s largest supporters, reason would dictate that the two countries, Turkey and Israel, would also have a mutualistic relationship…but it is not quite that simple.
While Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognize the state of Israel, relations between the two have become frosty in the past few decades. The 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, supported by Turkey, stated that Arab countries would normalize relations with Israel once the country fulfilled the resolution’s terms — terms that included the establishment of a Palestinian state. As these terms were never met, Turkey turned its support to Palestine. In 2010, the two countries pulled their ambassadors from Ankara and Tel Aviv and were at odds with one another until August 17, when they declared that they would normalize diplomatic relations and reinstate their respective ambassadors. The question is, what does each country hope to gain from this alliance?
Israel does not have many allies in the Middle East and it is likely that it hopes to adopt Turkey, as it has Azerbaijan, as an ally against Iran. Additionally, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has established ties with Hamas, Israel hopes that an alliance with Turkey may give it an upper hand against the militant group.
Since the beginning of Erdoğan’s presidency, Turkey has been experiencing major economic issues as inflation in the country reached rates of 70%. It is likely that the country is desperate for foreign investment, which it hopes to gain from Israel. Additionally, as Israel has strong ties with the United States, allying with the country will help boost Turkish foreign policy in the United States. It is apparent that Turkey can benefit greatly, both economically and politically, from Israel, but the current Israel-Palestine conflict may complicate the agreed alliance.
On October 25, Erdoğan openly voiced his support of Hamas, saying that the group was not a terrorist organization but rather Palestinian freedom fighters and “mujahideen,” meaning warriors. On November 15, in his address to parliament, Erdoğan added to his criticism of Israel, calling Israel a “terrorist state.” In a witty retort, Yair Lapid, the leader of Israel’s Opposition party, said that the country would not be taking “lessons in morality,” from Erdoğan, “a man with an appalling human rights record.” Lapid was likely alluding to Turkey’s involvement in and support of the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Armenians and Kurds. Adding to his remarks on November 15, Erdoğan threatened taking legal action against Israeli authorities involved in the violence against Palestinians. Displeased by the president’s statements, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to respond, reminding Erdoğan of his current crimes and bombardment of Kurdish villages.
While the rapport between the two leaders is somewhat ironic considering the level of hypocrisy involved, it will likely have very real consequences. The previously agreed-upon warming of political ties seems unlikely so long as both countries do not alter their oppositional views. This means that Israel will not have a strong ally in the South Caucasus apart from Azerbaijan amidst their conflict with Iran. Additionally, Turkish inflation will likely not feel any relief from Israeli foreign investment. As long as Turkish-Israeli relations remain frosty, Palestine will have an ally in Turkey who continues to send humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.
The question is, as hostility between Turkey and Israel worsens, will Azerbaijan be forced to take a side?